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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly different. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and recent underperformers ascending in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still