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Initially, Donald Trump seemed to adopt a resolute stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After making statements of "severe repercussions" last August should Vladimir Putin continued blocking peace discussions, he eventually enacted substantial restrictions on the Russian biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This move significantly affected Putin's ability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

However, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, which was drafted by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or European involvement, Trump has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

The former president's proposal would essentially reward Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite strong declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the proposal actually weaken that essential sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate experience, the former president persists to view the war as a mere land disagreement, implying ceding Putin a part of Ukraine's land will satisfy the ruler. However, Russia's military campaign is not only about occupying a damaged swath of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to eliminate it so it stops acts as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that his increasing autocracy denies them.

Land Giveaways

Although keeping in place the already divided Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would force the nation to surrender all of Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this surrender would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously undermined.

The area is the site of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that represent a essential obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, giving Russian forces a clear path to Kyiv if he subsequently choose to resume the hostilities.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a action that would enable additional hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to cut the scale of its armed forces from their current large number troops to a limit of this lower number. Notably, the proposal imposes no such limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as extremists, the plan states: "All Nazi ideology and actions must be condemned and banned." Apparently to emphasize this point, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. However, Trump places no requirement that the Russian leader risk his regime by conducting votes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the proposal has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its policy of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". But given that Putin has violated comparable agreements in the history – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to honor the nation's territorial integrity in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a handback of captured territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should we believe Russia this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external security guarantees. While the proposal threatens a "immediate coordinated defense action" in case Russia renew its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics include unclear to alarming. The plan would not only block the nation Nato membership but also prevent alliance nations from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Russia from replenishing his diminished troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

World Reaction

An additional parallel deal according to sources would offer the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack endangering the tranquility of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. Yet unlike a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's most reliable defense against renewed invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, including the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not