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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd