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Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.